Scientific basis

The section below provides summaries of the sections in the complaint. For references and the detailed version of Aurora's scientific report, see section 4. Facts in Aurora's complaint, p. 20-56.

Impact of the climate crisis on young people in Sweden
The climate crisis is a global crisis. Its consequences in Sweden pose a serious threat to life and health, through increased incidence of wildfires, floods, droughts, heatwaves, vector-borne, food-borne, rodent-borne, water-borne, and mosquito-borne infections. The climate crisis also leads to increased mental health problems, partly as a result of extreme weather events and environmental changes that are occurring and will occur, but also due to anxiety and stress during youth, which leads to increased risk of serious life-threatening diseases later in life. Everyone involved in the group action is young and therefore at high risk of suffering these consequences during their lifetime.

Importance of the 1.5°C limit
The difference in severity of the consequences of the climate crisis if global warming exceeds 1.5°C or not is significant. In addition, there is a significant increase in the risk of triggering tipping points after 1.5°C warming, and it is unclear whether the temperature can then be lowered again. Therefore, climate policy must be based on the fact that warming must never exceed 1.5°C.

The importance of taking action now
To limit global warming to 1.5°C, drastic emissions reductions are required starting now. This action cannot be postponed to the future, for example, by hoping that carbon capture technology will exist on a large scale. It is the emissions during this decade that matter; reductions cannot be delayed.

The importance of continuous emissions reductions
What drives the greenhouse effect is the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This concentration depends on the total emissions to the atmosphere over time. So, it is not only important which year emissions reach zero, but also how large the emissions are between now and then. To reduce the total amount of emissions, emissions must therefore decrease continuously, every year, until they reach zero, and they cannot be done at the last minute.

The importance of reducing all emissions and protecting and restoring natural carbon sinks
Greenhouse gases can be released from many different sources, and all of these must decrease. Biofuels from forests have higher emissions in the short term than fossil fuels, and clear-cutting leads to enormous emissions from the forest, while the forest's ability to absorb carbon is destroyed. Emissions from biofuels, land use, and forestry must all decrease for our total climate impact to decrease. In addition, the ecosystems that absorb greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, such as forests, oceans, and wetlands, need to be protected, and those that have already begun to be destroyed must be restored. Increased protection and restoration of forests, wetlands, and oceans provide significant climate benefits.

The importance of equitably distributed emissions reductions
The climate crisis is a problem we must all solve together, but the responsibility is not evenly distributed among the world's countries. Sweden, as a wealthy country with high historical emissions, has a particularly large responsibility to lead the way in the climate transition. Calculations of Sweden's fair share are presented, showing that emissions must be reduced by 6.5-9.4 million tonnes per year until 2030, starting in 2019. Years with higher emissions than this curve must be compensated for with lower emissions.

Sweden's emissions goals omit significant portions of Sweden's emissions and do not include any goals to protect and restore natural carbon sinks.
Emissions from Swedish consumption occurring abroad, emissions from Swedish legal entities abroad, and emissions from the LULUCF sector, such as emissions from the burning of biofuels and drained wetlands, are not included in the emissions goals and therefore lack targets for reduction. There is also no goal to increase the uptake of greenhouse gases by protecting and restoring natural carbon sinks such as forests.

Sweden's emissions goals are much less ambitious than Sweden's fair share.
Sweden's overall emissions goal is net zero emissions by 2045. This is too late and implies a much lower rate of reduction than indicated by calculations of Sweden's fair share. Additionally, Sweden does not have a goal for continuous emissions reductions on the way to the target, only milestone goals for limited sectors in 2030 and 2040. There is no goal for continuous reductions between now and 2030.

Sweden's expected emissions are even more insufficient than the climate targets.
Sweden's emissions since 2019 and expected emissions in the future are even higher than what Sweden's already insufficient emissions goals allow. This means that the gap between Sweden's actual emissions and Sweden's fair share is enormous.

Conclusion
Sweden's climate efforts are insufficient to be in line with Sweden's fair share to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. Therefore, Sweden's climate efforts constitute a violation of human rights.